Last 7 days
65
observed
How hard the weather is pushing pest demand in Phoenix right now, on a 0 to 100 scale where 100 is peak-season demand and 30 is the winter floor that never goes away.
Phoenix sits at 80 this week, 8 points above its five-year normal for mid October. A warm stretch is holding it up. The forecast has it easing to 75 next week. This is the fall slide. On a normal year Phoenix drops under 50 the week of Nov 12, 4 weeks out. From here the normal gives back another 41 points to a floor of 31 by January. Demand falls faster than most budgets do, and the slide is where spend runs ahead of the market.
On a normal year pest season in Phoenix starts building the week of Mar 19, when the Pest Pressure Index clears 40 off its winter floor, and is fully on by the week of Apr 2, when it crosses 50, half of peak. It peaks at 100 the week of Jun 25 and drops back under 50 the week of Nov 12.
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This is the market's half of the math. The Almanac runs your half: your spend and your signed customers, graded against this same curve. See the Almanac
The Pest Pressure Index converts daily temperature into pest demand: nothing below a 48°F daily mean, rising to full demand at 86°F, easing in extreme heat (except in desert markets like this one, where heat drives pests indoors and demand holds), with a winter floor of 30. Weekly readings average the daily values. In Phoenix the model tracks five years of "pest control" search interest at r=0.90; across 62 metros it runs r=0.93. It measures the market, not any one company.
Weather data: Open-Meteo. Search interest: Google Trends, Phoenix-Prescott market. Readings are the engine's own output and contain no company's advertising or customer data.